2026-11-11 METR: Anthropic's AI progress has roughly doubled in speed

metr-anthropic-ai-rd-acceleration: an outside check that AI is speeding up AI research

With access to non-public data, METR estimates Anthropic's capability growth has run at about 1.9× its earlier rate since October 2025, and guesses that about 80% of that is due to AI. Anthropic redacted most of the evidence METR found most informative.

ai-2027: updated with this week's stories

Lab self-acceleration and espionage around compute both feature in the scenario; added METR's finding and the Nvidia story to "Reading it in late 2026".